San Diego Union Tribune

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's standing with California voters has taken a stunningly negative turn just as the governor embarks on the difficult job of selling a package of complicated ballot propositions for an unpopular special election, according to a new Field Poll.

A year ago, 65 percent of the state's registered voters credited Schwarzenegger with doing a good job as governor. Now, only 37 percent do, compared with 53 percent who do not.

The Field Poll also shows that a majority of the state's voters oppose the Nov. 8 statewide special election Schwarzenegger called last week for his ballot initiatives on state spending, legislative redistricting and teacher tenure. Five other initiatives will be on the ballot.

After spending his first year in office focused on bipartisan consensus-building, which won him hearty voter approval, the Republican governor has been locked in rancorous partisan combat with the Democratic Legislature and public employees unions.

It has taken its toll.

"It's an incredible turn of events," said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. "Usually when you see big shifts in public opinion, it's something that's a reaction to external events. It might be changes in the economy. With (former Gov. Gray) Davis, it was electricity. This is self-inflicted."

The downward spiral of Schwarzenegger's approval rating at this point closely parallels that of the Democrat Davis, who was ousted in the 2003 recall election that elected Schwarzenegger.

In June 2000, 61 percent of the state's voters approved of the job Davis was doing. In May 2001, after the electricity crisis began, only 36 percent approved of Davis. That number dropped to 22 percent in August 2003, two months before he was recalled.

Schwarzenegger was elected with solid support from Democrats and voters not affiliated with a major political party. Polls throughout 2004 showed that pluralities of Democrats, in the high 40 percentages, approved of the job he was doing. Nonpartisans and minor-party members did so in even greater numbers, the high 50s to low 60s.

In the latest poll, only 16 percent of the Democrats and 35 percent of the nonpartisan and minor-party members said they approve.

Republicans remain solidly behind Schwarzenegger, but his stock among them has dropped as well. In February, 84 percent of the Republican voters said they approved of the job the governor was doing, compared with 66 percent now.

Mike Murphy, Schwarzenegger's chief political consultant, dismissed the poll as "balderdash."

"I would caution the opponents of reform not to believe summer poll numbers," Murphy said. "Let's not forget that in the summer of 2003, the Field Poll predicted Cruz Bustamante would be our next governor, showing him leading the recall pack. Additionally, anyone who really believes that the governor is down to 66 percent support among Republicans is in for a big wake-up call come November."

Yesterday afternoon, Bob Mulholland, the in-your-face campaign strategist for the California Democratic Party, circulated an e-mail with the subject line "Schwarzenegger souvenirs."

Its simple message: "Wall Street is recommending: Sell today, before the morning papers are out."

Last week, Schwarzenegger called a statewide special election for Nov. 8 in the face of mounting opposition to the vote.

In February, a month after Schwarzenegger first broached the subject of a special election in his State of the State address, a narrow majority of voters, 51 percent, favored the idea. Now, 52 percent oppose the election, while 37 percent favor it.

"They were mildly accepting of it back in February," DiCamillo said. "Now that they've seen the whole thing, they're not. They're basically saying the governor and the Legislature are not doing their jobs."

Although Schwarzenegger has plummeted in the estimation of California voters, the Legislature is held in even lower regard.

In the latest poll, only 24 percent of the state's voters approve of the job the Legislature is doing, compared with 57 percent who disapprove.

All year, Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders have proclaimed their willingness to negotiate solutions to the state's chronic budget deficit and other problems. But there has been little progress and apparently few substantive discussions.

The poll asked voters if they believed the governor and Legislature are "negotiating with each other in good faith or are their actions characterized more by confrontation with little room for compromise."

Only 32 percent said they believed Schwarzenegger was negotiating in good faith, compared with 47 percent in February. Only 25 percent said the Legislature was negotiating in good faith, compared with 27 percent in February.

Voters also reacted negatively when asked about their level of confidence in the governor and Legislature "to do what is right to resolve the state's budget deficit."

Only 17 percent said they had a "great deal" of confidence in Schwarzenegger, 32 percent replied "some," and 49 percent said "not much."

The Legislature fared even worse with only 5 percent of the voters saying they had a great deal of confidence in its ability to resolve the budget deficit. Forty percent said they had some confidence in the Legislature and 54 percent said not much confidence.

The Field Poll is based on telephone interviews with 711 registered California voters from June 13 through Sunday. Statistically, such a survey would be accurate within 3.8 percentage points 95 percent of the time.