San Francisco Chronicle

Governor lacks support for special election, poll finds
Voters would rather see his initiatives on '06 primary ballot
John Wildermuth - SF Chronicle Political Writer
May 26, 2005

If Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger calls a special election this November, he will have to face voters angry at the prospect of yet another statewide ballot, a new poll showed today.

By a nearly 2-to-1 ratio, California adults would rather see Schwarzenegger's government reform plan go on the ballot for the scheduled June 2006 primary election than this fall.

"Since January, we have seen the support for a special election drop by 12 percentage points,'' said Marc Baldassare, director of the Public Policy Institute of California poll. "The more (voters) have heard about the governor's initiatives, the less they are convinced this is something we need to do this year.''

The governor and his allies have initiatives on redistricting, teacher tenure and the state budget nearly ready to go on a special election ballot. Schwarzenegger must decide by June 13 whether he wants to call that election for Nov. 8.

Schwarzenegger won't have an easy time getting voters behind his initiative efforts. On redistricting, for example, while 41 percent of likely voters support his effort to take it out of the hands of the Legislature and give it to a neutral panel of retired judges, 40 percent oppose the plan.

The poll didn't ask about the estimated cost of up to $80 million to hold a special election, which the governor's opponents say is an even more important reason to wait until June 2006 to vote on the initiatives.

"I'm not surprised people aren't in favor of a special election,'' said Assemblyman Mark Leno, D-San Francisco, who has been helping to circulate a petition against a November election. "The governor has made no effort to make a case about what is so important about these issues that it can't wait until 2006.''

The governor's supporters, however, argue that the poll was taken before a television ad campaign that began in early May could have much effect.

"The governor understands that if we really want true reform, he may have to take it to a vote of the people,'' said Todd Harris, one of the governor's political advisers. "And it has to be done sooner rather than later.''

But Californians aren't convinced that Schwarzenegger, or any of their political leaders, has the answers to the state's problems. In just 19 months, the euphoria that followed Schwarzenegger's landslide victory in the election that recalled Democratic Gov. Gray Davis has turned to despair.

"It's a pretty disappointed group of Californians in this poll,'' said Baldassare. "They're unhappy with the governor and the Legislature and not happy with the way the state is heading.''

Only 40 percent of California adults and 45 percent of likely voters approve of the way Schwarzenegger is handling his job, down from 64 percent and 69 percent a year ago. The governor's star power may be all that's keeping him from sinking deeper, because Schwarzenegger's numbers on specific issues are even weaker.

Forty percent of California adults are pleased with the way the governor is reforming state government, 37 percent like what he's doing with taxes and the budget, 31 percent are happy with his efforts on illegal immigration, 29 percent approve of his handing of education and only 28 percent are convinced Schwarzenegger is doing the right thing when it comes to transportation.

The only good news for the governor is that the Democrat-controlled Legislature is even less popular than he is. Only 26 percent of the state's adults are pleased with the job state legislators are doing.

Californians' trust of state government has sunk to the rock-bottom levels of the Gray Davis era. The 29 percent who say they trust the state government to do what's right either always or most of the time is only a bit above the 27 percent seen in October 2003, when the recall forced Davis from office.

That deep displeasure with the government means that 72 percent of Californians would rather have voters make the decisions about long-term budget and government changes.

"With the way people feel about the governor and the Legislature, they want to be at the wheel,'' Baldassare said.

Any optimism Californians may have felt earlier this year has soured. In the new poll, 57 percent are convinced the state is heading in the wrong direction, up from 41 percent in January. Nearly half of those surveyed are convinced that the state is looking at tough economic times over the next year, compared with 39 percent who felt that way four months ago.

Despite concerns about the economy, voters are more willing than the governor to boost taxes to close the state's budget gap. A budget solution featuring a mix of spending cuts and tax increases is favored by 47 percent of likely voters, compared with 29 percent who, like Schwarzenegger, want to balance the budget with spending cuts.

Voters split almost evenly over both the governor's budget plan and his refusal to approve any tax increases, with Republicans overwhelmingly in favor and Democrats broadly opposed.

"When it comes to fiscal matters, there is still a very deep partisan divide in the state,'' Baldassare said.

The poll was based on a telephone survey of 2,003 California adults, including 1,586 registered voters, and was conducted between May 10 and 17. The margin of error for the entire survey is plus or minus 2 percent and plus or minus 2.5 percent for the sample of registered voters.