Desert Sun

Governor's popularity plummets
Field Poll finds Schwarzenegger losing support - across the board
Does Arnold have your support?
Jake Henshaw
Desert Sun
June 21, 2005

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's popularity has fallen to a new low among Californians, with barely a third of voters endorsing his performance in the latest Field Poll.
The poll found that just 37 percent of registered voters surveyed approve of Schwarzenegger's performance as governor. The number drops to 31 percent among all adults.

In February, 55 percent of registered voters approved of the governor's performance.

"What is striking to me is the loss of support he is getting among nonpartisans," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll.

Schwarzenegger lost ground in the latest poll among both Democrats and Republicans, but most notably among nonpartisans. Only 35 percent approved of his work.

Overall, the poll found that 37 percent of registered voters approve of the governor's job performance, 53 percent disapprove and 10 percent had no opinion.

Among all adults, 31 percent approve, 58 percent disapprove and 11 percent no opinion.

Democrats, who had given the governor a plurality of support in 2004 polls, began shifting more to opposition in February and in the latest poll only 16 percent favorably endorsed his efforts and 76 percent disapproved, with 8 percent offering no opinion.

Republican support dropped from nearly 90 percent in 2004 to 84 percent in February, and continued to free fall in this survey to 66 percent.

Nonpartisan backing fell from more than 60 percent last year to 48 percent in February and most recently to 35 percent, with 54 percent opposed and 11 percent offering no opinion.

Politicians and commentators Monday offered varying views on the governor's slide in the polls and the possible connection to the multi-million televisions campaigns well under way for and against the governor and his positions.

"I think he promised a lot and delivered little in the eyes of Californians," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst at the University of Southern California.

But Californians also took a critical shot at the Legislature in the latest poll, with just 24 percent of registered voters approving the lawmakers' work in a 10-point drop from February.

DiCamillo said the numbers confirm that "this isn't a very popular Legislature. It's seen as very partisan, very Democratic."

But he noted that 44 percent of voters surveyed said that they are more inclined to support legislative leaders over the governor in important disagreements. Only 33 percent said they would side with the governor.

"What that says to you," DiCamillo said of the governor's plunge in polls compared to lawmakers, "is that the governor has tarnished his image to even a greater extent than all the cumulative effect of the Legislature over these years."

Tony Quinn, a veteran political analyst, noted that the governor's and Legislature's numbers tend to rise and fall together.

"This is kind of counterintuitive, but the Legislature and the governor kind of go up and down in tandem," said Quinn, the co-author of the "Target Book" that analyzes state elections.

The poll findings set off a round of claims and counterclaims by the two sides in the special election that the governor has called for Nov. 8.

"I think the numbers are devastating for him because they show a continuous slide" in the polls, said Gale Kaufman, the political consultant to the Alliance for a Better California, the coalition of unions, Democrats and others opposing the special election.

She argued that voters are "more confident that we have a better handle where voters are."

"Balderdash," the California Recovery Team, the governor's campaign committee, said in a prepared statement.

Calls to the governor's office for comments were directed to the CRT, where political consultant Mike Murphy said his internal polls show the governor's approval rating above 50 percent.

"I would caution the opponents of reform not to believe summer polls numbers," Murphy said. "The real campaign for these reforms has not even begun, and our opponents are already declaring victory."

The new Field Poll found more voters opposed the special election than support it.

A majority of voters - 52 percent - opposed and 37 percent supported the election in the new poll, even when the estimated cost of more than $45 million wasn't mentioned.

Opposition increased to 61 percent when the cost was included in the question and support dropped to 28 percent.

In February, 51 percent of respondents supporting a special election without mention of the cost in February and 30 percent when the price tag was included.

The poll of 954 voters statewide was conducted June 13-19, the week when the governor went on television to call the special election and when the Legislature tried and failed on its first effort to approve a new state budget.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percent for the overall questions and plus or minus 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent for subgroups.

Schwarzenegger's approval rating is still above the low point of former Gov. Gray Davis, who bottomed out at 22 percent before being recalled by voters and replaced in 2003.

"Obviously I'm concerned with the direction that it is going," said Assemblyman John J. Benoit, R-Palm Desert, of the latest poll.

He blamed much of the governor's problems on the television and radio attacks on Schwarzenegger by a teachers' union and others over decisions on school funding, nursing ratios in hospitals, pensions and other issues.