On the road to not having a special fall election

SF Chronicle
Phil Matier & Andrew Ross
Monday, April 11, 2005

Whether it was a hasty retreat or a crafty jujitsu move, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to pull the plug on his public-pension overhaul makes the score "one down and three to go'' if the various players want to avoid a costly special election this fall.

Here's an insider's look at how the remaining three stand.

-- Teacher pay and education changes: Stalemate now -- but compromise possible.

The governor's team continues to say the Democrats are stalling and accuses them of being in the grip of the California Teachers Association. Democrats such as state Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata counter that the governor continues to be all over the map when it comes to laying out exactly what he wants.

"One day it's merit pay, then it's teacher tenure, then it's merit pay again,'' Perata said. "It's a bit befuddling."

Get everyone away from the microphones, however, and there appears to be agreement that a face-saving compromise might be possible that includes a combination of greater local control for schools, new teacher tenure guidelines and more money directly to the classroom.

The fly in the ointment, however, could still be merit pay for teachers - - something the unions oppose.

-- Redistricting: Schwarzenegger's idea of having judges redraw legislative and congressional districts so they would be more balanced has never been a barn burner with your average voter. Even some Republican leaders are leery.

Still, it's likely some deal will be struck -- if for no other reason than to avoid another fight.

Gubernatorial spokesman Rob Stutzman said that while Democrats are publicly talking about compromise, they have yet to offer a proposal.

The Democrats counter that they asked for a meeting a week ago to go over their points, and have yet to receive a reply.

Insiders' prognosis: The governor will get his way ... but not until 2010.

Which brings us to the big one.

-- State spending cap: This is where the real fight will be. Team Arnold insiders tell us that if deals are struck on education and redistricting, all the money that would have gone into those measures and into pension overhaul will be pulled into this fight.

Democrats counter, if that's what you want, have at it.

"We just passed a spending cap last year,'' Perata said. "This latest one is just a way to trigger automatic cuts if a budget can't be worked out. It's like setting off a nuclear bomb and then being able to walk away from it, saying, 'It's not my fault.' "

Both sides agree, however, that the Democrats got a big break on the issue, thanks to Attorney General (and gubernatorial hopeful) Bill Lockyer.

Lockyer -- who by law got to write the proposed initiative's official "title and summary" -- has nicely hung a 100-pound weight around its neck by stating it would "change state minimum school funding requirements, permitting suspension of minimum spending requirements.''

In other words -- it could cut Proposition 98 funding for schools.

Not a statement you want to be fighting over in a state where education money is sacrosanct.

"I heard that the governor's office just went apoplectic when they saw that,'' said one Sacramento insider.

And indeed, the governor is miffed.

"Let there be no doubt,'' said Stutzman, "the attorney general is nursing along some of the very same special interests that have helped him throughout his career."

Not so, shot back Lockyer spokesman Nathan Barankin: "The truth is, it does achieve its goal of saving the state money -- but by screwing kids."

Like we said, whatever the outcome, this one is the big one.