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Sacramento Bee

Special election turns off voters
When told of the cost, 61 percent oppose the Nov. 8 balloting.
By Gary Delsohn
Sacramento Bee Capitol Bureau
June 21, 2005

In the first statewide voter survey since he called a special election last week, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to go to the ballot box in November is decidedly unpopular.

Registered voters opposed the special election 52 percent to 37 percent, even when the matter of election costs wasn't included in the question, the Field Poll released Monday found.

When voters were told the Nov. 8 election would cost at least $45 million, opposition rose to 61 percent, with just 28 percent in favor.

In perhaps an even more ominous result for Schwarzenegger as he begins campaigning for his three ballot initiatives, 53 percent of all registered voters said they disapprove of the job he's doing as governor. That negative finding grew 18 percentage points in just four months.

Republicans still approve of his performance by a 2-to-1 margin, but Schwarzenegger is slipping even in that category. Support among fellow Republicans has dropped from 84 percent to 66 percent since the last Field Poll in February.

"It's a very broad rejection of the governor across lots of different segments of the public," poll director Mark DiCamillo said.

"Whenever an elected official fails to go through the normal channels of getting things done, when you're elected governor or elected to the Legislature ... that's when everybody takes a hit."

Schwarzenegger's overall approval ratings are about where they were for former Gov. Gray Davis during the height of the California electricity crisis in 2001.

"I don't see any way that they can put a positive spin on those numbers," said Gale Kaufman, a Democratic political consultant who is running the campaign against Schwarzenegger's initiatives.

Schwarzenegger called the special election on June 13 after months of threatening to take his agenda directly to voters when legislators showed little interest in supporting it.

His proposals seek to control state spending, make it harder for public school teachers to get tenure and change the way legislative and congressional districts are drawn.

Mike Murphy, Schwarzenegger's chief political strategist, didn't try to add a positive spin on the Field Poll numbers. In a statement released to the news media, he dismissed the numbers as "balderdash."

"The real campaign for these reforms has not even begun," Murphy said, "and our opponents are already declaring victory.

"They can declare victory all summer long, for all I care. We are squarely focused on November, and come this fall, after the voters learn about the governor's reform agenda and we have made our case, I am confident we will win."

Schwarzenegger could take comfort in one finding: The Democratic-controlled Legislature's approval rating is declining along with his. In the February poll, 34 percent of registered voters approved of the Legislature's job performance. Only 24 percent do now.

According to DiCamillo, the poll results mean voters are blaming everyone at the Capitol for the current state of affairs.

"The public is turning away from the governor and the Legislature, and saying they're not doing their job," DiCamillo said. "Most voters see this as 'They're not doing their job and now they're trying to pass it off on us, the voters.' "

"They'll attend to it and make their judgments," DiCamillo added. "But this is something that they don't, I think, look particularly forward to doing."

Kaufman said the poll made her feel particularly confident because Schwarzenegger's aides have insisted his poll ratings would rise once he started taking his message directly to voters.

Both sides have already spent millions on television ads, with Schwarzenegger hitting the airwaves hard last month.

"He's been on the air," Kaufman said. "He's the messenger. He's convinced everyone that as long as he's up selling a product, he can't lose. Obviously, the voters aren't buying what he's selling."

Voters also see Schwarzenegger as much more confrontational than they did during the last Field Poll in February. Fifty-two percent said Schwarzenegger's actions are "characterized more by confrontation, with little room for compromise." That's up from 39 percent in February.

Interestingly, while the Legislature is held in lower regard than Schwarzenegger, 44 percent of poll respondents said they'd be more inclined to side with "leaders in the Legislature" than with the governor.

John Geller, 60, a Democrat and retired construction worker near Oroville who responded to the poll, said he's offended by Schwarzenegger insisting on a special election in what was supposed to be a nonelection year.

"He's out there smiling for the cameras and campaigning," Geller said, "and every time there's a decision to be made, he wants to go to the voters. If he does that, why do we need him?

"He needs to get back on the job and work with the people he needs to deal with to get things done."

But poll respondent Betsy Bertram, 62, a Grass Valley businesswoman, said Schwarzenegger had no choice but to take drastic action.

"He's not a politician," she said. "He's a businessman. If the government did not waste so much money, there wouldn't be the need for a special election. He needs to get people's attention to the problem."

The findings are based on a random telephone survey of 954 California adults conducted in English and in Spanish by the Field Poll from June 13 to Sunday.

The poll included 711 registered voters. The margin of error for that sample is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

 

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