Sacramento Bee

Testy voters are unhappy with Schwarzenegger
By Daniel Weintraub – Sacramento Bee Columnist
May 26, 2005

Californians are ticked off, they think their state is sliding downhill and they don't trust Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to arrest the decline, according to a new poll to be published today.

"People are just in a rotten mood right now," said Mark Baldassare, who directed the poll for the Public Policy Institute of California. "There's no forgive and forget in them at the moment."

Baldassare found Schwarzenegger's ratings dropping pretty much across the board, as Californians said they don't like what he's been doing on a broad array of issues. If it's any consolation for the beleaguered governor, the Legislature isn't doing any better. But typically in times like this, people look first to the chief executive to fix things and hold him responsible when he does not.

The poll of 2,003 adults was conducted between May 10 and May 17, spanning the governor's release of his revised budget on May 13. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Although the poll found Schwarzenegger's overall approval rating unchanged from a month ago - 45 percent of likely voters approve of his job performance, 46 percent disapprove - the survey found that the governor's ratings on a series of specific issues had dropped since January and now range from bad to worse.

Voters gave him his highest rating, 47 percent, for his efforts to reform California government. Just 42 percent approved of his performance on the budget and taxes, and his approval rating was 36 percent on illegal immigration, 33 percent on education and 29 percent on transportation.

Baldassare found that 57 percent of all adults surveyed said they believed that things in California were going "in the wrong direction" and, by a 49 percent to 39 percent margin, they believed the economy was headed toward "bad times." Topping their list of concerns: the economy and jobs, education and the schools, immigration and crime. Ironically, fewer name the economy as the biggest problem today compared to a year ago (20 percent, down from 34 percent) but the other problems on the list are rising in stature to meet it.

In one glimmer of good news for the governor, those surveyed in May were more favorable toward the governor's proposed budget than Californians polled on the same question in January. Back then, his budget was panned by a margin of 55 percent to 38 percent. In May, the naysayers had only a narrow edge: 47 percent to 44 percent.

But Californians differ sharply with the governor's ideas for spending the new revenue that came into the state's coffers since January. Nearly eight in 10 - 76 percent - said the money should go toward increasing spending on kindergarten through 12th grade education. Schwarzenegger's revised budget barely increased spending on those programs compared to his January proposal.

Asked to describe how they would deal with the state's persistent budget gap, 43 percent said they favored a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Another 29 percent suggested only spending cuts, while 11 percent said only tax increases.

And Californians are divided down the middle when asked whether they would prefer a government that collects higher taxes and provides more services or has lower taxes and provides fewer services. Forty-six percent said they wanted the bigger government, while 45 percent opted for the smaller version.

While those surveyed are happy to take matters into their own hands - 72 percent said the voters should be consulted on budget issues - they are not in any rush to decide the issue. By a margin of 61 percent to 33 percent, they said they didn't see any need for the special election Schwarzenegger has threatened to call for this fall. His proposals to change the way the state draws political boundaries and to overhaul the budget process, meanwhile, still lead by small pluralities.

The poll unearthed this interesting but disturbing fact: Only 29 percent of Californians know that education spending is the biggest program in the state budget, which it is, by far. Almost the same number - 28 percent - cited prison spending, even though the state spends about $5 on education for every $1 it allocates to the prisons.

Where does all of this leave Schwarzenegger? His best bet, politically, would probably be a grand compromise with legislators that ends the recent rancor and moves things forward a bit, even if he has to give in on some of his positions. At a minimum, the governor probably needs to make one last, concentrated effort to find common ground with the Legislature so that voters have a sense that he is going to the ballot only as a last resort.

If he does go forward, this poll suggests that he would be wise to offer a little basic education about how the state spends its money. Misinformed voters who think he is spending more on prisons than the schools are not likely to look kindly on his proposals.

But most of all, the governor needs to stop harping on the problems - they are well enough defined - and start explaining how his proposals would solve them. Voters have heard enough of him raising questions. They want answers.